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Why Watch Market Indicators?

A common and effective way to gain perspective on stock price fluctuations is to compare the movement of your stocks to that of indices or market indicators. About 100 years ago, as the number of individual stocks grew, the need to measure how the stock market performed became obvious. A common and effective way to gain perspective on stock price fluctuations is to compare the movement of your stocks to that of indices or market indicators. About 100 years ago, as the number of individual stocks grew, the need to measure how the stock market performed became obvious. In 1896 The Dow Jones Company took groups of stocks and averaged their prices to create the first indices, the Dow Jones Averages. They created four different indices: one for industrial companies, one for utilities, one for transportation companies and a composite that included the three other indices.

In the 1920s, Standard & Poor's Corporation (S&P) created separate indices. These indices also measured the market as a whole in addition to some sectors of the market. In 1957, when technology enabled the companies to start calculating their indices on an hourly basis, S&P created the S&P 500 Index, which measured the performance of a larger proportion of the market compared to the more popular Dow Jones Industrial Index.

Over the years, the S&P and Dow Jones indices have remained popular, leading both companies to create other indices. In addition, other companies and even the exchanges themselves have created more indices.

Different indices are calculated in different ways. Few remain as simple averages. An index moves when the stocks in it move. When a stock in an index goes up or down, so does the index. Hence, when you hear that the Dow Jones closed at 10,500, down 20 points for the day, it means that the average of the prices of the 30 stocks that comprise the Dow is 10,500 and the combined value of these 30 stocks (as calculated by the index) dropped 20 points during that day's trading.

Calculation method aside, all indices measure the performance of the stock market or some subsection of it on a continuing basis throughout each trading day. By tracking an index, or a variety of indices, investors can quickly gauge market trends that may impact investment decisions.

What is the point of following the indices when what you care about is your own stock portfolio performance?

Indices often reflect trends in the market and in the economy. Watching overall market performance can be the key to making smart decisions about your individual investments. For example:

1) Indices can function as benchmarks to compare the performance of the stocks you own against the market in general.

2) Comparing today's market movement with similar market movements from the past may help you become aware of trends, and the best times to buy or sell.

You may want to create an index of your own stocks so you can measure your own investments against the performance of the more established indices.

There are a couple of ideas to keep in mind when analyzing indices. First, the percentage move is often more meaningful than the move in points. It means a lot more when the DJIA moves 50 points if it is at 1,000 than if it is at 10,000. Second, while individual stock prices, at least for the time being, are generally expressed as fractions, indices are displayed in decimals.

Martin Chandra is a full-time investor. He has been researching investment strategies and make his own living. For more information please go to http://martinchandra.com/peter-bain/

Quick Forex Ideas

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Unlike other financial markets, the Forex market has no physical location or central exchange. Since the Forex market lacks a physical exchange, the market trades continuously on a 24-hour basis, moving from one time zone to the next, across each of the world�s major financial centers every day. Trillions of dollars of foreign exchange activity takes place every day. From 1997 to the end of 2000, daily forex trading volume surged approximately from US$5 billion to US$1.5 trillion and more (according to various recent studies it has touched $1.7 trillion per day and dwarfs all other markets for trading in size and volume). It is really difficult, if not impossible; to determine an absolutely exact number because trading is not centralized on an exchange. But one thing is for sure that the Forex market continues to grow at a phenomenal rate.
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Historically, SMBs and individual investors have had limited access to the forex market. For decades, major banks, multinational corporations and other participants, trading in large transaction sizes and volumes, have dominated this market. However, just like many other business segments technology has lowered the barriers of entry and opened up this attractive marketplace to a new breed of investors and speculators.

forex chart



FAIR VALUE
The concept of fair value in any currency is largely that of CBers and economists and not much about trading. Almost always currencies overshoot from the fair value areas some 20-30% in their medium-term trend and what makes all hard currencies range in reasonable areas overtime since we had this floating regime in 1971 must the ability of relevant CBs to control the currency ranges and their real economy's weakness or strength to support those ranges. ECB folks were not joking when they said Eur/usd was some 25% undervalued from the fair value when Eur/Usd was below parity levels two years ago. Same goes for BOJ when they were saying Yen was some 10-20% overvalued when it was trading around 100 some three years ago too. That is how these folks view the markets and try to guide the market. Of course, when US Treasury folks say "Dollar is still strong" when it is falling, they are begging the market to sell more dollars
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